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AP-GfK Battleground State Poll:

A new AP-GfK poll in 8 battleground states has Obama ahead or tied in all of them, including four states that Bush won in 2004.

The states are: Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia.

The polling shows Obama leading in Ohio (7 percentage points), Nevada (12 points), Colorado (9) and Virginia (7), all red states won by Bush that collectively offer 47 electoral votes. Sweeping those four — or putting together the right combination of two or three — would almost certainly make Obama president.

Obama is winning by double-digits in PA and NH. Ohio has 20 electoral votes, PA has 21 and FL has 27. Nevada has 5, Colorado 9, NC 15 and Virginia 13.

On issues, Obama leads on almost every one from the economy to health care. He pulls even with McCain or leads on national security.[More...]

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AZ Poll: Obama Within 2 of McCain

A new Arizona poll finds John McCain's lead over Obama reduced to 2 points -- a statistical tie.

The same poll last month had McCain up by 7.

Today's LA Times/Bloomberg poll has Obama ahead in both Ohio and Florida.

The Washington Post reports McCain will focus on the economy in the coming week rather than national secuirty.

Does anyone care anymore what he focuses on?

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Why McCain Doesn't Have the Numbers to Win

Sure, as I've been saying for a few months, the election is now about turnout. Even so, ABC News boils down the electoral map in such a way that it seems impossible John McCain can win:

If McCain doesn't win Pennsylvania's 21 electoral votes, he would have to run the table and win all eight of the competitive states that were held by President Bush in 2004, including Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Colorado, Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, and Nevada.

...If you take all four of these states that will be decided relatively early on Election Night next Tuesday -- Pennsylvania, Virginia, Ohio, and Florida -- McCain has to win three out of four of those states to even have a chance of getting to 270 electoral votes.

It gets worse for McCain: Even Montana is no longer a sure thing and McCain has begun advertising there this week. [More...]

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McCain Says He Won't "Coddle Criminals"

Via Sentencing Law and Policy where law prof Doug Berman provides his own thoughts, Sen. John McCain has an op-ed today in the National Law Journal outlining his views of criminal justice and the role of judges.

Terrorists are not the only threat to public safety. Lax enforcement policies, judges who legislate from the bench and lack of support for law enforcement personnel all continue to force our innocent citizens behind the barred windows of their homes and allow criminals to roam free.

And now drugs are bringing waves of crime and organized gang activity to rural areas thought to be nearly immune from such problems. The federal government must both support state and local law enforcement and effectively enforce federal laws designed to root out violent crime, organized gangs and other interstate criminal activity.

[More...]

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Obama's Latest Ad: McCain is Out of Time and Ideas

"New Subject" highlights that John McCain is out of ideas, out of touch and running out of time. With no plan to lift our economy up, John McCain is trying to tear Barack Obama down with scare tactics and smears.

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Des Moines Register Endorses Obama

The Des Moines Register has endorsed Barack Obama for President. Why not John McCain?

But it's as if McCain has lost his way, forfeiting principle for gain of a few points in the polls. He put on hold his long-sought quest for comprehensive immigration reform. Though widely regarded as a man of honor, he has overseen a campaign premised on purposeful distortions about Obama and his record.

Worst of all, in grasping for political edge in his choice of a running mate, he burdened his ticket and potentially the country with an individual utterly unqualified to ascend to the presidency. Before choosing Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, McCain emphasized the importance of experience and sound judgment in fighting terrorism and confronting a restive Russia and a rising China. He has also questioned Obama's readiness to be commander in chief. Then he picked a running mate who clearly isn't ready.(emphasis supplied.)

On the plus side for Obama, besides the economy and his inspiring of voters: [More...]

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RNC Donors on Palin's Clothes: "Not the Change They Wanted"

Newsweek reports RNC donors were furious about the $150,000 clothing expense shelled out for Gov. Sarah Palin's clothes.

Lobbyist Andrea McWilliams, a GOP fundraiser in Texas, said the flap undercut the party's message. Palin's "transformation from low couture to haute couture isn't the kind of change that voters had in mind," she said.

Marty Eisenstadt takes a closer look at the expenditure form and notes that the second make-up artist, Tracy Thorpe, was flown in and paid $900 to give Sarah Palin a spray tan to get rid of her "Eskimo tan."

Newsweek reports the McCain campaign "directed" the RNC to foot the clothing bill. [More...]

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Hillary's 65th Campaign Appearance for Obama

Hillary made her 65th campaign appearance for Sen. Barack Obama in Aurora, Colorado today. Also on hand: Gov. Bill Ritter, Sen. Ken Salazar and Reps. Diana DeGette and Ed Perlmutter.

More here at the Denver Post.

McCain campaigned in Denver today as well, along with former Denver Bronco quarterback John Elway.

Sen. Barack Obama will be in Denver on Sunday for a rally in Civic Center Park downtown. My prediction: The Obama crowd will dwarf the 4,000 that showed up for McCain today.

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Newsweek Poll: Obama Up By 13

Obama's lead is holding steady according to the latest Newsweek poll. Poll data is here.

Obama's lead in the NEWSWEEK Poll is consistent with other recent national polls, including soundings taken by CBS News and The New York Times, The Washington Post and ABC News, NBC News and The Wall Street Journal and by Pew Research, all of which measured Obama's lead over McCain as somewhere between 10 and 14 points. In the NEWSWEEK Poll, Obama's lead stayed virtually unchanged from two weeks ago, when he led McCain 52 to 41 among registered voters.

Obama leads in almost every demographic. [More...]

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Battleground State Analysis

ABC News has an analysis of the battleground states today.

Eight states that could go either way -- Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, Missouri, Indiana and North Carolina -- hold 111 of the 270 electoral votes needed for either candidate to win the presidency.

Whether those red states will turn blue is yet to be determined, but according to the latest polls, Obama has a 52-45 percent advantage in those battlegrounds. States like Indiana, Missouri and North Carolina, previously leaning in McCain's favor, are now considered toss-ups.

John McCain needs every state Bush carried in 2004 plus a big one Kerry carried -- like Pennsylvania. [More...]

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McCain's Unsolvable Problem: Sarah Palin

Big Tent Democrat believes that:

The country is rejecting Republicanism and extreme conservatism, not Sarah Palin's "qualifications." The mandate is for a change away from extreme Republicanism and conservatism, not a rejection of Sarah Palin the person.

I agree that Sarah Palin "the person" is not being rejected. But her qualifications are being rejected, and as CNN reports today, her lack of qualifications are the number one reason voters are rejecting John McCain:

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John McCain: Rock Star?

Meghan McCain was in Denver yesterday to pitch her new book about her father and her. Dad John arrives today where he will campaign with former Denver Quarterback John Elway. From her interview with local 7 News,

John McCain's daughter calls campaigning with him "like being on tour with a band except we're trying to save the world."

Katie Couric asked John McCain when was the last time he cried.

John McCain: I cry regularly.
Couric: You do?
McCain: Aw, yeah. You know, I'm very sentimental.

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